What to expect from social commerce during the upcoming holiday shopping season

In MarTech’s “MarTechBot explains it all” feature, we pose a question about marketing to our very own MarTechBot, which is trained on the MarTech website archives and has access to the broader internet.

Q: What should we expect from social commerce during the 2025 holiday shopping season?

In 2024, social commerce moved decisively into the mainstream. TikTok Shop’s gross merchandise value (GMV) surged to $33.2 billion globally, more than doubling from the previous year. The U.S. emerged as the single largest market, contributing $9 billion in GMV, even though TikTok Shop only launched in the U.S. in September 2023. This included a standout performance during Black Friday, when U.S. sales alone exceeded $100 million.

Momentum didn’t slow in early 2025. In just the first quarter, TikTok Shop added $8 billion to its global GMV, pushing it to a staggering $58 billion — a trajectory hinting at possible doubling of 2024’s performance by year end. These figures signal not merely a spike, but a structural shift: creators and live-streaming are now fixtures in commerce.

Platforms redefining holiday commerce

TikTok Shop’s rise highlights live and short-form video as the new storefront. Its influential creator economy — ever the engine behind impulse and gift discovery — is delivering GMV and engagement on an unmatched scale. As standalone apps refine their tools (e.g., affiliate tagging, AI ads), brands must align quickly or risk being left behind.

Meta’s move to push checkout to brand sites invites a shift in strategy. While discovery may still happen within Facebook or Instagram, conversion is now the merchant’s responsibility. This amplifies pressure on digital speed, mobile optimization and seamless checkout experiences. The benefits of accelerated loading, streamlined payments and clear policies will carry amplified weight during the high-stakes holiday peaks.

What this means for social commerce during the 2025 holiday season

Expect social media to take the lead on discovery, with audiences guiding themselves via livestreams, Shorts and creator content. Yet conversion will increasingly happen off-platform, forcing brands to bolster their web infrastructure — not just for speed but for reliability and trust.

TikTok’s GMV surge suggests an intensifying “affiliate + live” flywheel, where creators drive urgency, and platforms supply the tools. On Meta’s side, brands must bridge content-led engagement with site performance.

For the 2025 holiday season, success will hinge on:

1. Pre-season live-tested creator campaigns, with limited-time bundles and pricing incentives leading into Cyber Week.
2. Mobile-first landing pages and checkouts: Fast, frictionless and consistent with social branding.
3. Transparent pricing and policies: Especially vital as consumers grow savvier and platforms pivot strategies.

The stakes and the strategy

The significance of these developments can’t be overstated. TikTok Shop’s explosive growth shows that social platforms are increasingly primary shopping destinations during peak seasons. At the same time, Meta’s course correction reinforces that merchants must be agile, managing everything from landing-page speed to fulfillment directly.

In short: the 2025 holiday season looks like a grand draft of social-first discovery, smart creator partnerships and merchant-powered conversions. Get that balance right — and the payoff could echo well into 2026.

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